This section compares the overall features of the scenarios. It takes a very global perspective, rather than focusing on - for example - managerial tasks or sectoral interest.
| |
Renewed Foundations |
Pushing the Edge |
| Economic growth to 2010 |
Capital market under-performance, slow economic expansion. Major productivity drive, however, with significant social impact. Pervasive lack of trust. |
Very rapid growth, ceaseless accelerando of technological change. Strong productivity drive, but new activities also hire heavily. Out-sourcing overseas adds to exclusion of least able. |
| Economic growth after 2010 |
Gradual pick-up based on knowledge economy. Area-focused specialisation; but also 'fitting in' with very complex, differentiated needs. |
Growth slows as a result of the overwhelming complexity of the operating environments, and the instability caused by weak institutions and global shocks. |
| Political themes around 2010 |
Claimancy, identity politics, activism. Rift between traditionalist, age-heavy nations & others; and attempts to curtail the supposed impact of third world trade on local jobs. |
Triumphal revival of 'modernism' in the leading edge nations; some bitterness and blame elsewhere. Coldness between the industrial nations. |
| Pre-occupations after 2010 |
Building and learning to use multi-layered, expert, plural frameworks without becoming bogged down by them. Building international structures to bring order. |
Complexity managed by fragmentation and statal minimalism. Very high levels of differentiation develop, and managing interfaces is an issue. |
| |
Renewed Foundations |
Pushing the Edge |
| Leading edge industrial countries in 2020 |
Denmark, Scandinavians, Netherlands, Canada; major cities; major industrial value chains and their related geographical centres. |
USA, Canada, UK, Eire, Australia; London, New York, other major cities; Singapore, parts of coastal China. |
| Trailing edge industrial countries |
Japan, UK excluding London, US urban sprawl, Italy, Belgium, France. |
Japan, Italy; rural hinterland of age-and-claimancy nations; rust belt USA. |
| Relations between industrial nations |
Sharply cooling as ideological differences develop; warming and extending to general collaboration as the renewed approach becomes proven. By 2020, 'national' relations are supplanted by far more complex, multi-layered relations. |
Initially warm at the elite level, gradually cooling as complexity curtails sovereign liberties.
Mutual economic dependency has increased greatly by 2020. |
| Global relations |
A major effort underway in 2020 to 'raise the game' and to build working international institutions. |
Largely bilateral or unilateral interventions, set against a background of weak institutions. |
| Security concerns |
Environmental issues. Theft of intellectual property is important. A desire to project power to 'make things right'. The pre-occupations of a wealthy, elderly population projected on the rest of the world. |
Dangerous technologies, wars amongst middle-rank powers, public health problems, economic discontinuities, resource wars and environmental problems, terror as vehicle for dissent. |
| |
Renewed Foundations |
Pushing the Edge |