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Previous scenarios

Previous scenarios

The 2003 scenarios looked forward to 2025. We have retained these in full as they were extensively used by third parties, and are particularly useful for those taking a view about international intervention.

There is an executive summary, which follows a different format to other papers on this web site. This is because it is self-contained. You can, for example, save it (File menu > Save as) and then mail it to a colleague. It will appear to them as you see it. However, the file contains absolute addresses, so anyone using it will be connected to this site automatically if they click on a link.

In addition, the following papers are available to you.


A review of the key issues
Introducing the new scenarios.
Scenario 2025: New Deal
Scenario 2025: Blunted Edge
The key timeframes and the central variables
Some implications of the scenarios
New (2004) scenarios for geopolitics.

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