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Recent discussion papers

Recent discussion papers

We post a series of discussion papers, which are quite distinct from the extensive thematic analysis which is offered elsewhere. Readers who wish to comment or to post relevant papers of their own should contact us. (See "About" for our acceptance critieria.)

These papers have been generated in the course of the 2006-07 scenario process. They can also be accessed from here, following a somewhat different rationale.

On how to take good decisions.

Introduction: On decision-taking and its machinery
Feedback on the introductory paper.
Another feedback paper.
Whom do you trust?
Volatility Is Good For You
"Quantum" intuition
Three kinds of management team
How societies react to change
When does 'Economic Man' dominate social behaviour?
The implications of 'corporate responsibility'.
Trust, narrative and the moral society.
The Fox and the Hedgehog: cognitive styles in decision-taking.
How will the democratic form of government evolve?
Choice, values and moral philosophy
Values and moral philosophy

On the rise of China.

On the rise of China.
Comment: on possible Asian instability.
China: Exchange Rate and Trade Balances
Review: China Shakes The World

On what is known about economic development.

On how development is to occur.
On supersizing the EU - a new development agenda.
Development and knowledge: rich-world ignorance
Why does capital not flow from the rich to the poor nations?

On supplying the world with energy.

Energy over the next 25 years
Contrarian view on climate change
Comments on the energy paper

Miscellaneous topics.

On social and national stereotypes.
Flat taxation, transparent subsidy.
Attitudes to the future in 2030
Technology and the defence environment in 2030
Industrial change: three cores to each company
Awkward questions and the embarrassment culture
Are taxes good for you?
How and why societies assign high rank

The following general discussion papers are also available:

Brand destruction: Microsoft's Office 2007 as a case study.
Strategy in software: insight from the Linux wars. (PDF format)
Is it possible to force the process of development?
Security and development
Geopolitics - the next wave
Evolution and the Intelligent Design thesis
Europe and the US: what's "left", what's "right"?
Facts and feelings?
A nuclear surprise?
Governance in a century of turbulence
Experimental economics and making choices
Global trends and the public affairs function
The world after the 2003 Iraq war
Competitive Cities: five keys to success
The future of 3G cellphones
On getting it wrong
Environmental protectionism?
Lessons from the Iraq intervention
Power and weakness: US and EU influence
Interview: Security and power in 2020
Looking back from the world of 2050
Role-playing to predict terror
Experimental economics
Fairness versus economic rationality
On planning for future defence needs.
The role of business in Middle East peace building
Reconsidering the European enterprise
A riposte on Europe
Transport and e-commerce
Is there a 'new economy'?
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Links to Interactive Trek Guides sites for Peru and Nepal.

The trek Peru web site. The trek Nepal web site.